soarin3655
08-12 04:43 PM
I know the Whole Truth ****
At school a boy was told by a classmate that most adults are hiding at least one dark secret, and that this makes it very easy to blackmail them by saying, "I know the whole truth."
The boy decides to go home and try it out. He goes home, and as he is greeted by his mother he says, "I know the whole truth."
His mother quickly hands him $20 and says, "Just don't tell your father."
Quite pleased, the boy waits for his father to get home from work, and greets him with, "I know the whole truth."
The father promptly hands him $40 and says, "Please don't say a word to your mother."
Very pleased, the boy is on his way to school the next day, when he sees the mailman at his front door. The boy greets him by saying, "I know the whole truth."
The mailman drops the mail, opens his arms, and says, "Then come give your father a big hug." :D
At school a boy was told by a classmate that most adults are hiding at least one dark secret, and that this makes it very easy to blackmail them by saying, "I know the whole truth."
The boy decides to go home and try it out. He goes home, and as he is greeted by his mother he says, "I know the whole truth."
His mother quickly hands him $20 and says, "Just don't tell your father."
Quite pleased, the boy waits for his father to get home from work, and greets him with, "I know the whole truth."
The father promptly hands him $40 and says, "Please don't say a word to your mother."
Very pleased, the boy is on his way to school the next day, when he sees the mailman at his front door. The boy greets him by saying, "I know the whole truth."
The mailman drops the mail, opens his arms, and says, "Then come give your father a big hug." :D
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Marphad
12-17 02:26 PM
This is exactly why terrorist and their supporters like antulay are succeeding...
What has this to do with immigration ??? Does Antulay support EB2/EB3 reforms ? Do he mention anything about wasted visa numbers.
This is not a place to post/preach religious, spiritual believes unless it gets you the Green Card. If many Indians visit this forum, it does not become hosting agent for your thoughts. Now don't waste your time and server hard disk space posting something back on this thread.
Ek aur double standard...
You definitely didn't think about server hard drive space and your most valuable time when you posted these:
Medical Insurance:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=221246#post221246
Three Options:
Cheap Child: She can go India and get the baby delivered for fraction of cost. They call it medical outsourcing. She she is on H4, she'll have no problem crossing the borders.
Expensive Child: If she wants her child to be US Citizen, then there is cost involved ... she would need to pay. This is going to be an expensive child.
Free Child: BUT it she got guts she can always deliver the baby in hospital and refuse to pay since there is a law that dictates against any litigation by hospital for medical expenses. Since she's on H4 and she does not have SSN, she won't have any effect on her credit history.
DOW is down - ha ha ha:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=186584#post186584
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
That is very funny ...... I can see how these virtual stock figures can scare some people away ?
Find yourself better things to worry about ... For those who can't compete in tough times, must leave US now.
If there is going to be a recession, it should be fun.
What has this to do with immigration ??? Does Antulay support EB2/EB3 reforms ? Do he mention anything about wasted visa numbers.
This is not a place to post/preach religious, spiritual believes unless it gets you the Green Card. If many Indians visit this forum, it does not become hosting agent for your thoughts. Now don't waste your time and server hard disk space posting something back on this thread.
Ek aur double standard...
You definitely didn't think about server hard drive space and your most valuable time when you posted these:
Medical Insurance:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=221246#post221246
Three Options:
Cheap Child: She can go India and get the baby delivered for fraction of cost. They call it medical outsourcing. She she is on H4, she'll have no problem crossing the borders.
Expensive Child: If she wants her child to be US Citizen, then there is cost involved ... she would need to pay. This is going to be an expensive child.
Free Child: BUT it she got guts she can always deliver the baby in hospital and refuse to pay since there is a law that dictates against any litigation by hospital for medical expenses. Since she's on H4 and she does not have SSN, she won't have any effect on her credit history.
DOW is down - ha ha ha:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=186584#post186584
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
That is very funny ...... I can see how these virtual stock figures can scare some people away ?
Find yourself better things to worry about ... For those who can't compete in tough times, must leave US now.
If there is going to be a recession, it should be fun.
unitednations
03-24 11:55 AM
Can you please elaborate?
I may be understanding this incorrectly, but are they denying our right to be represented by a lawyer?
No; I am saying I am suspicious of original poster because when in local USCIS offices they swear you in that you are going to tell the truth and if you don't have a lawyer with you then they make you sign a statement that you are self representing yourself at the itnerview.
Because of these formalities; I have my doubts with a Phone call received from the local office and asking for documnets, questions on some very substantive matters without going through the formalities that local uscis office is supposed to do.
- I went to two local uscis office interviews; so I am pretty versed in their procedure.
I may be understanding this incorrectly, but are they denying our right to be represented by a lawyer?
No; I am saying I am suspicious of original poster because when in local USCIS offices they swear you in that you are going to tell the truth and if you don't have a lawyer with you then they make you sign a statement that you are self representing yourself at the itnerview.
Because of these formalities; I have my doubts with a Phone call received from the local office and asking for documnets, questions on some very substantive matters without going through the formalities that local uscis office is supposed to do.
- I went to two local uscis office interviews; so I am pretty versed in their procedure.
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gc28262
12-22 05:43 PM
On the other hand if some one is attacking me in my home and/or hurting my family or freinds, I have full rights to defend and call for justice to prosecute the attacker, in this case declaring Pakistan a terrorist country.
So you don't consider Kashmir as part of your home. Majority of Indians think Kashmir is part of India.
Where does the boundary of your little world end? I know the boundary starts with you. How big is that world ?
It is so enlightening to learn that you care for people other than yourself.
So you don't consider Kashmir as part of your home. Majority of Indians think Kashmir is part of India.
Where does the boundary of your little world end? I know the boundary starts with you. How big is that world ?
It is so enlightening to learn that you care for people other than yourself.
more...
NKR
04-14 04:40 PM
If you had said your child needs personal space, then it would be different. In this case you are talking about older kids. Most of us have kids younger than 5 years old.
Probably my wording was wrong, but I am glad you got my point.
It is not only the kids, if your parents wants to live with you for 6 months, you know what you are getting at. Anyways, since we have diverted the topic of the thread, I do not want to deviate any further. I am resting my case.
Probably my wording was wrong, but I am glad you got my point.
It is not only the kids, if your parents wants to live with you for 6 months, you know what you are getting at. Anyways, since we have diverted the topic of the thread, I do not want to deviate any further. I am resting my case.
validIV
06-23 03:25 PM
Yea your calculation is a little off. 400,000 financed @ 5% 30 year fixed is $2,148. Factor in your taxes and insurance in escrow thats a total of (approximately, im guessing for your area) $2,500 total. Plus your HOA of $250/month thats 2750 which sounds about right with gapala's calculation. Your closing costs, give or take should also be factored, approx. 10-30k.
So that comes to 33k/yoy in expenses. That may not be bad when your making six figure incomes or combined household incoming is 150K+, since 20k+ of interest is deductible yoy, but imo i wouldnt buy a 500k+ property unless there is some sort of income to bring down my monthly cost, like a rental unit.
Townhouses here in NY are very similar to condos so I'm assuming that its the same there. I personally would not pay 500k for something similar to a condo unless its in Manhattan. Just curious why not buy a house instead of a townhouse? Unless thats the norm in that area. I would prefer to take care of the house myself than pay maintenance and HoA dues. You learn a lot more and grow as a homeowner.
Here is one calculation that might give you one more reason to buy...
This is taking into consideration bay area good school district ....
say you are currently in a 2 bedroom paying around $1900 rent (say cupertino school district)
you buy a townhome for around $500k putting down 20%
so loan amount is 400k
@ 5% instrest your annual intrest is $ 20k.
Say 3k HOA anually...
Property tax....as a rule of thumb, I believe (and have heard from others) whatever poperty tax you pay comes back as your mortgage intrest and property tax is deductable.
So not taking property tax into account....your annual expense is 23k.
now here is the nice part....
you get 8k (or is it 7.5k ?) from FED for buying a house (first time buyer)
If you get a real estate agent who is ready to give you 50% back on the comission you can get back around 7.5k (assuming the agent gets 3% comission)...I know those kind of agent exist for sure !!
There is something I have heard about CA also giving you 10k for buying new homes...but I am not sure of this so will leave it out of the calculations...
so total amount u get back....8k+ 7.5k = 15k approx..
1st year expense = 23k
1st year actual expense = 23-15 = 8 k
which mean monthly rent = 8k/12 = $666 per month (it is like paying $666 rent for a 2 bedroom in cupertino school district)
Will the property value go up ? I do not know (I wish I knew)...
Is there a risk ? I would think yes....
Percentage of risk ? I would think keeping in mind current prices the risk is low...
I am not telling that you should buy or not buy....just provided one piece of the calculation....-;)
All the best !
So that comes to 33k/yoy in expenses. That may not be bad when your making six figure incomes or combined household incoming is 150K+, since 20k+ of interest is deductible yoy, but imo i wouldnt buy a 500k+ property unless there is some sort of income to bring down my monthly cost, like a rental unit.
Townhouses here in NY are very similar to condos so I'm assuming that its the same there. I personally would not pay 500k for something similar to a condo unless its in Manhattan. Just curious why not buy a house instead of a townhouse? Unless thats the norm in that area. I would prefer to take care of the house myself than pay maintenance and HoA dues. You learn a lot more and grow as a homeowner.
Here is one calculation that might give you one more reason to buy...
This is taking into consideration bay area good school district ....
say you are currently in a 2 bedroom paying around $1900 rent (say cupertino school district)
you buy a townhome for around $500k putting down 20%
so loan amount is 400k
@ 5% instrest your annual intrest is $ 20k.
Say 3k HOA anually...
Property tax....as a rule of thumb, I believe (and have heard from others) whatever poperty tax you pay comes back as your mortgage intrest and property tax is deductable.
So not taking property tax into account....your annual expense is 23k.
now here is the nice part....
you get 8k (or is it 7.5k ?) from FED for buying a house (first time buyer)
If you get a real estate agent who is ready to give you 50% back on the comission you can get back around 7.5k (assuming the agent gets 3% comission)...I know those kind of agent exist for sure !!
There is something I have heard about CA also giving you 10k for buying new homes...but I am not sure of this so will leave it out of the calculations...
so total amount u get back....8k+ 7.5k = 15k approx..
1st year expense = 23k
1st year actual expense = 23-15 = 8 k
which mean monthly rent = 8k/12 = $666 per month (it is like paying $666 rent for a 2 bedroom in cupertino school district)
Will the property value go up ? I do not know (I wish I knew)...
Is there a risk ? I would think yes....
Percentage of risk ? I would think keeping in mind current prices the risk is low...
I am not telling that you should buy or not buy....just provided one piece of the calculation....-;)
All the best !
more...
validIV
06-26 10:20 AM
Renting is not throwing money away..why ? for one - you get a place to stay, flexibility, maintenance / property tax paid by property owner, you can rent closer to your work and move around as per needs etc etc.. housing has its own benefits (but renting has its own too .."it is not as easy as saying renting is throwing money away" ..I have been asked to write about this in detail in the IV wiki ..will post a link here later
ok if its not throwing money away, how do you get the money back you spent on renting? Nothing you said above answers that question.
ok if its not throwing money away, how do you get the money back you spent on renting? Nothing you said above answers that question.
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gondalguru
07-08 08:00 PM
Assuming your husband is here from 2000, they are asking for 7 years, i.e. 12 * 7 = 84 months of paystubs? This is ridiculous. How many people keep paystubs from 7 years ago? Infact in those days paystubs used to have their social security numbers on them, they should be shredded, atleast that's the common advice.
My pay stub still has SSN.
Its always good to keep all the paystubs / w2/ tax returns / employment verifications letter / what ever other evidences you have.. especially employment based GC applicants
My pay stub still has SSN.
Its always good to keep all the paystubs / w2/ tax returns / employment verifications letter / what ever other evidences you have.. especially employment based GC applicants
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ImmInd
08-05 10:59 AM
My Friend 'Rolling_Flood':
Please remember that EB2 is better than EB3. As someone mentioned, people always want to move up in all activities (work, life, anything).
And, please remember what will happen if you (iff you are in EB2 now) fall down due to some issues in EB2 case documents or filing, etc ? You may start with EB3 again and we will not tell you at that time saying ' you are EB3 guy and low skilled category'. We still feel bad for you.
I have Masters, more then 5 yrs exp (at that time of filing) and EB2 Title - but, my employer has some restrictions which limits them to not file in EB2. I ended up in EB3 :)
I do not intend to attack - but, we are trying to just explain... Again, I am not affended !!! Please read and think before you post something like this...
Please remember that EB2 is better than EB3. As someone mentioned, people always want to move up in all activities (work, life, anything).
And, please remember what will happen if you (iff you are in EB2 now) fall down due to some issues in EB2 case documents or filing, etc ? You may start with EB3 again and we will not tell you at that time saying ' you are EB3 guy and low skilled category'. We still feel bad for you.
I have Masters, more then 5 yrs exp (at that time of filing) and EB2 Title - but, my employer has some restrictions which limits them to not file in EB2. I ended up in EB3 :)
I do not intend to attack - but, we are trying to just explain... Again, I am not affended !!! Please read and think before you post something like this...
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checklaw
10-02 01:10 PM
he for now atleast, seems slightly different then regular politicians that we know of...and considering the consequences of present financial crisis would most likely be the next President coming Nov..
but to us, the prospective permanent immigrants, this comes with a measure of fear knowing he might listen and act only to staunch anti-legal-immigration policy advisors in his rank who seem to wield substantial influence on such matters.
checklaw
but to us, the prospective permanent immigrants, this comes with a measure of fear knowing he might listen and act only to staunch anti-legal-immigration policy advisors in his rank who seem to wield substantial influence on such matters.
checklaw
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Macaca
02-17 02:35 PM
American Immigration Control Foundation (AICF (http://www.aicfoundation.com/))
Americans for Legal Immigration - ALIPAC (http://www.alipac.us/)
American Patrol/Voice of Citizens Together (http://www.americanpatrol.com)
California Coalition for Immigration Reform (http://www.ccir.net/)
Californians for Population Stabilization (http://www.cap-s.org/main.html)
Center for Immigration Studies (CIS (http://www.cis.org/))
Colorado Alliance for Immigration Reform (CAIR (http://www.cairco.org/))
Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR (http://www.fairus.org/site/PageServer))
The Heritage Foundation (http://www.heritage.org/)
Minutemen (http://www.minutemanproject.com/)
NumbersUSA (http://www.numbersusa.com/index)
Population-Environment Balance (http://www.balance.org/)
Pro English (http://rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/1533)
Programmer's Guild (http://www.programmersguild.org/)
ProjectUSA (http://www.projectusa.org/)
The Social Contract Press (http://rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/1539)
U.S. English (http://www.us-english.org/inc/)
U.S. Inc.
Hate Groups (http://www.splcenter.org/intel/map/hate.jsp)
Comments
These organizations do not disclose the contributions made to them and the management of these contributions.
Most of these organizations have full time employees.
Americans for Legal Immigration - ALIPAC (http://www.alipac.us/)
American Patrol/Voice of Citizens Together (http://www.americanpatrol.com)
California Coalition for Immigration Reform (http://www.ccir.net/)
Californians for Population Stabilization (http://www.cap-s.org/main.html)
Center for Immigration Studies (CIS (http://www.cis.org/))
Colorado Alliance for Immigration Reform (CAIR (http://www.cairco.org/))
Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR (http://www.fairus.org/site/PageServer))
The Heritage Foundation (http://www.heritage.org/)
Minutemen (http://www.minutemanproject.com/)
NumbersUSA (http://www.numbersusa.com/index)
Population-Environment Balance (http://www.balance.org/)
Pro English (http://rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/1533)
Programmer's Guild (http://www.programmersguild.org/)
ProjectUSA (http://www.projectusa.org/)
The Social Contract Press (http://rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/1539)
U.S. English (http://www.us-english.org/inc/)
U.S. Inc.
Hate Groups (http://www.splcenter.org/intel/map/hate.jsp)
Comments
These organizations do not disclose the contributions made to them and the management of these contributions.
Most of these organizations have full time employees.
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sc3
07-14 04:21 PM
People in Eb3 visa are not our enemies most of these people are our friends. We all have friends in both categories suffering. The issue exploded because of the contents of letter drafted by pani_6. It was pitting eb2 vs eb3. We all agreed all along that entire immigration system needs to be changed but here we have a letter that says dont give visa's to eb2 because we are not getting any. That I feel is unfair because all these days these spill visa's were going to ROW and people like pani_6 were perfectly happy but once their friends from eb2 (Ind) started to get them he was crying fowl.
I think we all agreed that the letter contents were somewhat pre-baked. The letter campaign was a idea in the right direction.
And mind you, we are now very active not because EB2 is moving, but because we now have concrete proof that the system was changed this year. I had my doubts, and had been asking about it for a while now, but all of the people said, "no you are wrong, the spill-over is working as it should, and as it always has". We have just recently realized that we were being misled, and there indeed has been a change. That is the reason we are being active.
Yes, you agreed that the immigration system needs to be overhauled, but the only relief in sight is for EB2 folks.. There is no legislation that will help EB3 backlogs. Recapture will again help Eb2 folks, and given the new "pecking order" that has been wrongly put by USICS, Eb3 will never truly benefit from any of these bills.
IV has its goals, as any organization should, and we fully realize that it can't keep everyone happy. However, some of you are stopping voices of others from being heard -- which is fine too. IV is a private organization that can choose to censor or restrict some kind of activities. But when you do that, you can't hope that everyone will support the organization, and believe everything that is being told to them.
I think we all agreed that the letter contents were somewhat pre-baked. The letter campaign was a idea in the right direction.
And mind you, we are now very active not because EB2 is moving, but because we now have concrete proof that the system was changed this year. I had my doubts, and had been asking about it for a while now, but all of the people said, "no you are wrong, the spill-over is working as it should, and as it always has". We have just recently realized that we were being misled, and there indeed has been a change. That is the reason we are being active.
Yes, you agreed that the immigration system needs to be overhauled, but the only relief in sight is for EB2 folks.. There is no legislation that will help EB3 backlogs. Recapture will again help Eb2 folks, and given the new "pecking order" that has been wrongly put by USICS, Eb3 will never truly benefit from any of these bills.
IV has its goals, as any organization should, and we fully realize that it can't keep everyone happy. However, some of you are stopping voices of others from being heard -- which is fine too. IV is a private organization that can choose to censor or restrict some kind of activities. But when you do that, you can't hope that everyone will support the organization, and believe everything that is being told to them.
more...
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alterego
04-06 09:35 AM
I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.
The truth is probably between the extreme pessimism in this post and the unbridled optimism in other posts.
Never trust what realtors tell you, they are in it to make a sale and it is always in their interest to talk up the market. I have never yet seen/read/heard a realtor speak negatively about the market. Even if they are asked an obvious question like do you think prices have fallen in the last year they will say they have trended down a little but the foreclosure crisis is over now, and the fed is acting decisively and the demographics speak to a longer term secular uptrend bla bla blaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Some BS to justify their talk.
The bottom line is there will be a hangover of a few years from this unprecedented bubble in housing, it will be more severe in hotspot areas we all know about. In those areas you will likely see a 25-30% drop with about half of it already baked in, another half spread out more slowly over the next 3 yrs that that graph illustrated. Additionally the inflation rate of 3-4%(you can expect an uptick over the next 2-3 yrs) will eat away another few percentage points of your capital , while also eating away at your loan.
The net effect is that you would be another 20% or so the worse off in these hotbed areas in the next 3-4 yrs. In more steady areas, that fall will be much more muted perhaps half or less of that. However sales will slow to a crawl with the slowing jobs market.
The main determinants of house prices are.
1) Inventory............a negative right now.
2) Credit............negative but with scope for improvement in the next 12 mths.
3) Jobs...........likely to be down for the next 6 months atleast.
4) Salaries..................Global pressures on these will likley persist with some tax help to average americans likley if Dems. take control.
5) Market psychology...................likely damaged for the near term atleast 12 mths.
6) The replacement value of homes. Land is a non factor here in this country. I scoff at suggestions to the contrary. Even in cities with restrictions, this is a yawn yawn factor. Unless you are speaking about downtown manhattan it is not a factor. Construction costs on the other hand are a factor. A value of $100 per Sq Ft of constructed value is perhaps par for the course right now, that can only go up, with rising commodity prices, salaries for construction with illegals kicked out etc over time this will go up.
7) Rental rates to home prices. This too will catch up. Folks kicked out of sub prime mortgage homes need to go somewhere. They will likley drive demand for rentals.
All of this points to a fast then a slow correction. I think we are nearing the end of the fast phase of home price correction. 20-25% in hotbed areas and 7-12% in other areas. I think you will see a more gradual correction of a similar magnitude spread over 3-4 yrs now.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
Remember Every drinking binge has a hangover! The US housing market is now in one.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.
The truth is probably between the extreme pessimism in this post and the unbridled optimism in other posts.
Never trust what realtors tell you, they are in it to make a sale and it is always in their interest to talk up the market. I have never yet seen/read/heard a realtor speak negatively about the market. Even if they are asked an obvious question like do you think prices have fallen in the last year they will say they have trended down a little but the foreclosure crisis is over now, and the fed is acting decisively and the demographics speak to a longer term secular uptrend bla bla blaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Some BS to justify their talk.
The bottom line is there will be a hangover of a few years from this unprecedented bubble in housing, it will be more severe in hotspot areas we all know about. In those areas you will likely see a 25-30% drop with about half of it already baked in, another half spread out more slowly over the next 3 yrs that that graph illustrated. Additionally the inflation rate of 3-4%(you can expect an uptick over the next 2-3 yrs) will eat away another few percentage points of your capital , while also eating away at your loan.
The net effect is that you would be another 20% or so the worse off in these hotbed areas in the next 3-4 yrs. In more steady areas, that fall will be much more muted perhaps half or less of that. However sales will slow to a crawl with the slowing jobs market.
The main determinants of house prices are.
1) Inventory............a negative right now.
2) Credit............negative but with scope for improvement in the next 12 mths.
3) Jobs...........likely to be down for the next 6 months atleast.
4) Salaries..................Global pressures on these will likley persist with some tax help to average americans likley if Dems. take control.
5) Market psychology...................likely damaged for the near term atleast 12 mths.
6) The replacement value of homes. Land is a non factor here in this country. I scoff at suggestions to the contrary. Even in cities with restrictions, this is a yawn yawn factor. Unless you are speaking about downtown manhattan it is not a factor. Construction costs on the other hand are a factor. A value of $100 per Sq Ft of constructed value is perhaps par for the course right now, that can only go up, with rising commodity prices, salaries for construction with illegals kicked out etc over time this will go up.
7) Rental rates to home prices. This too will catch up. Folks kicked out of sub prime mortgage homes need to go somewhere. They will likley drive demand for rentals.
All of this points to a fast then a slow correction. I think we are nearing the end of the fast phase of home price correction. 20-25% in hotbed areas and 7-12% in other areas. I think you will see a more gradual correction of a similar magnitude spread over 3-4 yrs now.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
Remember Every drinking binge has a hangover! The US housing market is now in one.
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alien2006
08-11 12:55 PM
dont know about lou's total viewership but every day his online polls have less than 15,000 respondents
http://www.cnn.com/POLLSERVER/results/26653.exclude.html
i m sure its basically everybody who is a member of numbersusa, fair and other nut job establishments
The less we talk about his polls the better. Notice how every poll of his is swung to one end of the spectrum. His polls are the most ridiculous thing on the face of the planet.
http://www.cnn.com/POLLSERVER/results/26653.exclude.html
i m sure its basically everybody who is a member of numbersusa, fair and other nut job establishments
The less we talk about his polls the better. Notice how every poll of his is swung to one end of the spectrum. His polls are the most ridiculous thing on the face of the planet.
more...
pictures Click to enlarge, Diagram of
puddonhead
06-07 06:22 PM
I think it really is a matter of personal choice. A house is much more than a mere investment. For people like us it adds another layer of complications
due to our status (or rather...lack of status).
We are in Bay Area (San Jose Metro area) and were paying around $2000 in rent. We just bought a condo where our payments (mortgage + Taxes + HoA) are going
to be around 2300. Hopefully we will be getting back around 400-500 in taxes and this makes it a good deal. However only 15 days after moving into our
new house, I was laid off and now our biggest concern is if I am not able to get a job in next few weeks and if we have to go back we will be almost
80k down the hole.
Personally I would wait till 2012 beginning to consider getting into Cali, Las Vegas, Florida markets. The neg-am/interest-only bubble (BusinessWeek Article (http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/jun2008/bw2008065_526168.htm?campaign_id=yhoo)) is just beginning to burst with their interest rates resetting, and wont peak until late 2011. This bubble is just as big as the sub-prime one (in terms of dollar value - around USD 0.5 - 1.5 Trillion) and will probably have much higher default rate (north of 50% by all estimates I have seen so far). These loans were originated to make the high priced homes in these area affordable. So it will hit the middle class to aspirational neighborhoods the most - unlike the sub-primes, which mostly hit the lower income areas.
I don't mean to sound disheartening - just want to provide info and interpretation as I see it so that people can avoid getting into this trap.
Personally, I am also surprised/uncomfortable that the prices in the NY Metro Area has not come down so much even though all the indicators (rent/price ratio, affordability) are way off base and getting worse with rents heading south. I don't know how these ratios will correct themselves (the neg-am mess is unlikely to hit this area too much) - but my intuition tells me that it has to. If anybody more knowledgeable can add more insights then that will be great.
due to our status (or rather...lack of status).
We are in Bay Area (San Jose Metro area) and were paying around $2000 in rent. We just bought a condo where our payments (mortgage + Taxes + HoA) are going
to be around 2300. Hopefully we will be getting back around 400-500 in taxes and this makes it a good deal. However only 15 days after moving into our
new house, I was laid off and now our biggest concern is if I am not able to get a job in next few weeks and if we have to go back we will be almost
80k down the hole.
Personally I would wait till 2012 beginning to consider getting into Cali, Las Vegas, Florida markets. The neg-am/interest-only bubble (BusinessWeek Article (http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/jun2008/bw2008065_526168.htm?campaign_id=yhoo)) is just beginning to burst with their interest rates resetting, and wont peak until late 2011. This bubble is just as big as the sub-prime one (in terms of dollar value - around USD 0.5 - 1.5 Trillion) and will probably have much higher default rate (north of 50% by all estimates I have seen so far). These loans were originated to make the high priced homes in these area affordable. So it will hit the middle class to aspirational neighborhoods the most - unlike the sub-primes, which mostly hit the lower income areas.
I don't mean to sound disheartening - just want to provide info and interpretation as I see it so that people can avoid getting into this trap.
Personally, I am also surprised/uncomfortable that the prices in the NY Metro Area has not come down so much even though all the indicators (rent/price ratio, affordability) are way off base and getting worse with rents heading south. I don't know how these ratios will correct themselves (the neg-am mess is unlikely to hit this area too much) - but my intuition tells me that it has to. If anybody more knowledgeable can add more insights then that will be great.
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lfwf
08-05 02:37 PM
And let me add another twist to the story.
The Guy with Masters degree is working with a desi sweatshop and convinced his masters (No pun) to file for Eb2 even though his job duties were just dish out code like a high school grad can do. On the other hand there was another guy who was in US for a decade , gone though masters degree and got a very good job in a very good company. He was eligible for EB2 but his only mistake was to not force the company to file a EB2 case or even worse his lawyer makes a mistake and files under Eb3 even though the job he was in and he are qualified as Eb2. The company wants to make amends now by filing a EB2 case and first MS guy (sweatshop guy) wants him to start again and wait for another decade.
The kicker : The sweat shop labor guy works in the same company as contractor and reports to the second guy and in the same reporting chain, just two levels below him.
How about another story :
Both guys go to the same engg school back home. One guy passed with distinction and got a job immediately in a respectable company immediately. Other guy takes two additional years to finish the degree , but his dad was rich enough to send him to the US to complete the MS and now he thinks he is smarter than every one else and needs a special place in the queue.
You can come up with 100s of stories if not more. Therefore you can't generalize. Just don't think all those who filed under EB2 first are with MS and smarter than others and all those who are Eb3 are here by shady means.
I am not taking sides here, but it is not a question of "smarter". I have a simple question. Do years spent doing MS/PhD have no value? They count for nothing in PD. On the other hand a person with a BS accumulates 5 years in the same time and ports. Now he/she is a full 5 years ahead of the one that pursued the education route. Fair?
I don't think that porting is all fair. Just MHO that the 5 year experience rule negates all efforts in getting a masters degree/PhD and puts those people at a huge disadvantage. The system tried to make up for that by creating preference categories. Not that they work perfectly of course as many of you have pointed out.
So let me come to the point, question for OP. Are you against all porting? Or only against porting based on lack of qualifications for an EB2 job originally- then porting 5 years later based on the additional experience alone?
BTW I resent the insinuation that 1% of EB2s are genuine. The same can be said of many many EB3s- remember the qualifications required are much lower.
I also resent the idea that all US Masters folks are just "rich kids". Most people work through the degree and/or take loans. Please don't start making needless statements. If you had a masters originally and your job qualified as EB2 but your company refused- I feel for you, I really do. There should be a solution to your problem. That does not mean that those who did get EB2 were all suddenly not "genuine".
Also I want to clarify something- this is purely objective now. Yes GC is for a "future job" but folks are over reaching with some of the arguments. In order to get an EB2 (or EB3) for this "future job- you either have to show current employment with the sponsor OR show the job offer qualifying for that category at the time you apply. The "future job" cannot be a nebulous idea that you make concrete at a later time.
The Guy with Masters degree is working with a desi sweatshop and convinced his masters (No pun) to file for Eb2 even though his job duties were just dish out code like a high school grad can do. On the other hand there was another guy who was in US for a decade , gone though masters degree and got a very good job in a very good company. He was eligible for EB2 but his only mistake was to not force the company to file a EB2 case or even worse his lawyer makes a mistake and files under Eb3 even though the job he was in and he are qualified as Eb2. The company wants to make amends now by filing a EB2 case and first MS guy (sweatshop guy) wants him to start again and wait for another decade.
The kicker : The sweat shop labor guy works in the same company as contractor and reports to the second guy and in the same reporting chain, just two levels below him.
How about another story :
Both guys go to the same engg school back home. One guy passed with distinction and got a job immediately in a respectable company immediately. Other guy takes two additional years to finish the degree , but his dad was rich enough to send him to the US to complete the MS and now he thinks he is smarter than every one else and needs a special place in the queue.
You can come up with 100s of stories if not more. Therefore you can't generalize. Just don't think all those who filed under EB2 first are with MS and smarter than others and all those who are Eb3 are here by shady means.
I am not taking sides here, but it is not a question of "smarter". I have a simple question. Do years spent doing MS/PhD have no value? They count for nothing in PD. On the other hand a person with a BS accumulates 5 years in the same time and ports. Now he/she is a full 5 years ahead of the one that pursued the education route. Fair?
I don't think that porting is all fair. Just MHO that the 5 year experience rule negates all efforts in getting a masters degree/PhD and puts those people at a huge disadvantage. The system tried to make up for that by creating preference categories. Not that they work perfectly of course as many of you have pointed out.
So let me come to the point, question for OP. Are you against all porting? Or only against porting based on lack of qualifications for an EB2 job originally- then porting 5 years later based on the additional experience alone?
BTW I resent the insinuation that 1% of EB2s are genuine. The same can be said of many many EB3s- remember the qualifications required are much lower.
I also resent the idea that all US Masters folks are just "rich kids". Most people work through the degree and/or take loans. Please don't start making needless statements. If you had a masters originally and your job qualified as EB2 but your company refused- I feel for you, I really do. There should be a solution to your problem. That does not mean that those who did get EB2 were all suddenly not "genuine".
Also I want to clarify something- this is purely objective now. Yes GC is for a "future job" but folks are over reaching with some of the arguments. In order to get an EB2 (or EB3) for this "future job- you either have to show current employment with the sponsor OR show the job offer qualifying for that category at the time you apply. The "future job" cannot be a nebulous idea that you make concrete at a later time.
more...
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gcseeker2002
12-27 10:49 PM
I myself am originally from Mumbai so please dont doubt the deep sense of outrage that I feel. But amid all this talk about going to war, here are a few things to ponder
1. Think about how long it takes to construct a single runway of an airport. In the developed countries, it takes about 2-3 years, for India safe to say 5-6 years. One of Paki's first responses would be take out entire airports not just runways. Can you imagine how long it would take us to recover
>>>>>It will be the same if terrorists take out entire airports by their terror actions, which they were about to do in Mumbai that failed on 11/26. So no point worrying about what if.
2. Why should India kill Pak when it is killing itself every day. At this rate, just imagine how long this country will last. Sitting back and being a spectator could just about be the best option
>>>>>At this rate they will take another 50 years to kill themselves, but will continue to torment India till they die, they are like a cockroach that keeps wriggling till it dies, and does not matter if you just cut off its legs, etc.
3. If we are outraged by 200 civilians/police/NSG dying, do we really have the stomach to absorb 1000s, lakhs ........
>>>>>If we dont destroy the Pakis now, tomorrow their terrorists will take out 1000s, lakhs while we sit and wait.
4. Talking of "surgical strikes" - surgical strikes on what? Even the dumbest terrorist knows that its probably not a good idea to be in a terror camp right now.
>>>>>That is a true statement, but who cares, look at Israel that takes out Hamas buildings even though no hamas terrorists are in those buildings.
5. Do we really want to unite all those crazy Punjabis, Balochis, Taliban and the Paki army
>>>>>They are already united, it is Indians who are divided.
6. Ok, what about assassinating Kayani. Wonderful, we have destroyed the last institution in Paki land. Get ready to welcome millions of refugees
>>>>>No comments.
I know I know that I am not coming up with any good course of action, just pointing out the flaws in the rest of them. But thats all my layman's strategic vision gives me. Maybe with just 1/100th the cost of war, we can improve our border/maritime security and also our intelligence apparatus
Personally, I think war is going to happen. I just wish people even remotely understand what it is that they are asking for.
War is bad but required to quell bad people, some people just dont get it the soft way.
1. Think about how long it takes to construct a single runway of an airport. In the developed countries, it takes about 2-3 years, for India safe to say 5-6 years. One of Paki's first responses would be take out entire airports not just runways. Can you imagine how long it would take us to recover
>>>>>It will be the same if terrorists take out entire airports by their terror actions, which they were about to do in Mumbai that failed on 11/26. So no point worrying about what if.
2. Why should India kill Pak when it is killing itself every day. At this rate, just imagine how long this country will last. Sitting back and being a spectator could just about be the best option
>>>>>At this rate they will take another 50 years to kill themselves, but will continue to torment India till they die, they are like a cockroach that keeps wriggling till it dies, and does not matter if you just cut off its legs, etc.
3. If we are outraged by 200 civilians/police/NSG dying, do we really have the stomach to absorb 1000s, lakhs ........
>>>>>If we dont destroy the Pakis now, tomorrow their terrorists will take out 1000s, lakhs while we sit and wait.
4. Talking of "surgical strikes" - surgical strikes on what? Even the dumbest terrorist knows that its probably not a good idea to be in a terror camp right now.
>>>>>That is a true statement, but who cares, look at Israel that takes out Hamas buildings even though no hamas terrorists are in those buildings.
5. Do we really want to unite all those crazy Punjabis, Balochis, Taliban and the Paki army
>>>>>They are already united, it is Indians who are divided.
6. Ok, what about assassinating Kayani. Wonderful, we have destroyed the last institution in Paki land. Get ready to welcome millions of refugees
>>>>>No comments.
I know I know that I am not coming up with any good course of action, just pointing out the flaws in the rest of them. But thats all my layman's strategic vision gives me. Maybe with just 1/100th the cost of war, we can improve our border/maritime security and also our intelligence apparatus
Personally, I think war is going to happen. I just wish people even remotely understand what it is that they are asking for.
War is bad but required to quell bad people, some people just dont get it the soft way.
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zCool
04-07 12:45 AM
I don't think that will be end of the world. H1B was answer to the xenophobia itself. It's beneficial to corporations and US economy but very bad for Indians who are being lured under wrong perception. People are getting temperory permits for jobs that basically happen to be of permanant nature.
When there happen to be 200K applications for 65K permits on day 1.. and folks from Microsoft and Google have to worry abt being able to keep geniuses they have hired.. something's gotta happen to separate wheat from chaff.. this will be it..!
When there happen to be 200K applications for 65K permits on day 1.. and folks from Microsoft and Google have to worry abt being able to keep geniuses they have hired.. something's gotta happen to separate wheat from chaff.. this will be it..!
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Emerson
04-07 04:55 AM
Durbin Grassley bill was timed to be introduced on April 2nd. It was thought, designed, planned and drafted well in advance before anybody would have known the date or time of when the H visa quota will exhaust. So there is no point in repeatedly saying that this bill is the result of quota finishing on day 1.
It is not a zero sum game that how many H visas Microsoft or Google or Intel got. And highly skilled immigrants working in these companies are not the only genius around. There is a lot of talent on H visa working in other companies. Microsoft is a responsible company and they understand that there just aren’t enough college graduates produced by the US universities. H visa holders contribute towards innovation helping the nation’s economy and they indirectly contributing towards progress even when not directly working for Microsoft or Google or Intel etc.
As administrator mentioned, this bill was being planned by the lobby groups working against H visa program for years. Here is a link dated 1999 showing that people have been working to end H visa program for long time.
http://www.colosseumbuilders.com/articles/miano_testimony.html
This bill is the work of same group of people and it does pose a real threat to H visa program.
H1 quota finished because of many reasons including:
1.) Companies waited for 1 year to hire someone they wanted to hire from outside. Last year also H1 quota did finish in April. So there was a backlog for some companies to hire people with specific talent.
2.) For some companies, green card backlog creates an incentive to hire on H visa. Trends suggest that US worker will most likely leave job with couple of years in IT sector. However, due to green card backlog, H1s cannot leave or change jobs for 6-10 years. This creates an incentive for “some” companies to hire on H visa. Solution to the problem is to fix green card backlog. If companies will know that H visa employee too could get green card in couple of years and could potentially leave, this incentive will get eliminated.
3.) The notion of something being scares creates added demand for it. This is what we are seeing with H visa quota.
This is a good discussion, please contribute to this discussion. I am here to learn.
It is not a zero sum game that how many H visas Microsoft or Google or Intel got. And highly skilled immigrants working in these companies are not the only genius around. There is a lot of talent on H visa working in other companies. Microsoft is a responsible company and they understand that there just aren’t enough college graduates produced by the US universities. H visa holders contribute towards innovation helping the nation’s economy and they indirectly contributing towards progress even when not directly working for Microsoft or Google or Intel etc.
As administrator mentioned, this bill was being planned by the lobby groups working against H visa program for years. Here is a link dated 1999 showing that people have been working to end H visa program for long time.
http://www.colosseumbuilders.com/articles/miano_testimony.html
This bill is the work of same group of people and it does pose a real threat to H visa program.
H1 quota finished because of many reasons including:
1.) Companies waited for 1 year to hire someone they wanted to hire from outside. Last year also H1 quota did finish in April. So there was a backlog for some companies to hire people with specific talent.
2.) For some companies, green card backlog creates an incentive to hire on H visa. Trends suggest that US worker will most likely leave job with couple of years in IT sector. However, due to green card backlog, H1s cannot leave or change jobs for 6-10 years. This creates an incentive for “some” companies to hire on H visa. Solution to the problem is to fix green card backlog. If companies will know that H visa employee too could get green card in couple of years and could potentially leave, this incentive will get eliminated.
3.) The notion of something being scares creates added demand for it. This is what we are seeing with H visa quota.
This is a good discussion, please contribute to this discussion. I am here to learn.
nogc_noproblem
08-29 08:59 PM
"Love" stamps
A guy walks into a post office one day to see a middle-aged, balding man standing at the counter methodically placing "Love" stamps on bright pink envelopes with hearts all over them. He then takes out a perfume bottle and starts spraying scent all over them. His curiosity getting the better of him, he goes up to the balding man and asks him what he is doing.
The man says: "I'm sending out one thousand Valentine cards signed: 'Guess who?'"
"But why?" asks the man.
"I'm a divorce lawyer." the man replies.
A guy walks into a post office one day to see a middle-aged, balding man standing at the counter methodically placing "Love" stamps on bright pink envelopes with hearts all over them. He then takes out a perfume bottle and starts spraying scent all over them. His curiosity getting the better of him, he goes up to the balding man and asks him what he is doing.
The man says: "I'm sending out one thousand Valentine cards signed: 'Guess who?'"
"But why?" asks the man.
"I'm a divorce lawyer." the man replies.
sanju
04-07 05:51 PM
I agree, new H1b is not our concern..well not directly or immediately.
maybe the way to approach this is to ask that a PERM/LC once approved be considered as fulfilling the requirement for any certification needed for the job- in any case if it's the same process, it amounts to useless duplication to keep certifying a job again and again...
Duplication, triplication of work to file H1s. That is what anti-H1 guys want. They want to make the system so difficult that filing H1s renewals will be impossible. It is possible to talk to people who are ready to listen. These guys are in no mood to talk. That is why suggesting them anything will be like talking to a wall. IV should oppose this bill totally and completely. We should all educate everybody we know, as Administator said, we should inform our friends and employers to get their support.
maybe the way to approach this is to ask that a PERM/LC once approved be considered as fulfilling the requirement for any certification needed for the job- in any case if it's the same process, it amounts to useless duplication to keep certifying a job again and again...
Duplication, triplication of work to file H1s. That is what anti-H1 guys want. They want to make the system so difficult that filing H1s renewals will be impossible. It is possible to talk to people who are ready to listen. These guys are in no mood to talk. That is why suggesting them anything will be like talking to a wall. IV should oppose this bill totally and completely. We should all educate everybody we know, as Administator said, we should inform our friends and employers to get their support.
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